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Cloudy with a chance of recession: UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts a gloomy future for the US economy

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The US economy might see a downshift in 2019 and 2020, according to a new quarterly report by UCLA Anderson School of Management.

Over the next two years, the economy could decline from 3% real GDP growth in 2018 to 2% in 2019, and 1% in 2020. The report also outlines a national drop in job growth from the average monthly gain of 190,000 this year to 160,000 a month in 2019, and eventually a mere 40,000 a month in 2020.

In California, the forecast expects the unemployment rate to increase from an average of 4.1% last month to 4.5% by 2020. With escalating trade tension and debt-financed corporations, a recession could be looming on the horizon.

We examine the report’s findings and discuss its possible implications.


Jerry Nickelsburg, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast and professor of economics, which released its economic forecast for the nation for 2019 yesterday

Robert Kleinhenz, Economist and Executive Director of Research at Beacon Economics, an economic research and consultant firm in Los Angeles